Just curious as to what some of you have as favorite trainer or horse angles. For instance, I'm sure some of you west coast players look for first timers by In Excess. Years ago, I used to look for races where Baffert had two horses that weren't coupled. I'd always play the higher priced one and usually to pretty good success.
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Favorite angles?
- Thread starter Cerveza
- Start date
Best angle? Well-in early summer-any well bred horse-(really well bred-like 200k or more purchases) --handled by a good barn--that ran pretty well as a 2yo (2-3-4 starts) and then was turned out until May-June the following year. This is a horse the owner/barn liked -possibly showed a minor injury-and didn't want to risk further injury or just wanted to handle a really good horse with kid gloves. You still need to see some solid work underneath-at speed-and at race distance (5 or 6f)-but these tend to be dismissed in NW1L or good MSW races--and win at nice prices.
bolivar- without analyzing the results i cannot say with certainty that you have the best angle out there, but it's certainly among the more interesting "angles" i've ever heard.
i have a few angles that i play almost blindly, and frankly, i'm not blabbing about them, but one that was amazingly successful for me, but is no longer that relevant is the "chance off" angle. i used to bet any horse that chance rollins had ridden in his previous race that had a different jockey aboard. i've seen thousands and thousands of races and chance rollins may be the worst "finisher" in america. he either doesn't have the strength to finish or he just doesn't have the aptitude, but this angle led to numerous double (and an occasional triple) digit payoffs. this was applicable while he was down here in socal. don't really follow the nocal circuit, but he seems to be riding better out there (and, maybe more significantly, the riders that replace him on a horse may be equally bad, whereas almost any jockey in socal while be an improvement from rollins).
just a fun and profitable angle from a while back.
i have a few angles that i play almost blindly, and frankly, i'm not blabbing about them, but one that was amazingly successful for me, but is no longer that relevant is the "chance off" angle. i used to bet any horse that chance rollins had ridden in his previous race that had a different jockey aboard. i've seen thousands and thousands of races and chance rollins may be the worst "finisher" in america. he either doesn't have the strength to finish or he just doesn't have the aptitude, but this angle led to numerous double (and an occasional triple) digit payoffs. this was applicable while he was down here in socal. don't really follow the nocal circuit, but he seems to be riding better out there (and, maybe more significantly, the riders that replace him on a horse may be equally bad, whereas almost any jockey in socal while be an improvement from rollins).
just a fun and profitable angle from a while back.
Gary Bain in Miami. Same bet. Couldn't drive his finger up his asz.
Love the Chance Rollins angle, Mazel. Chance being an old Turf Paradise guy it reminds me of Joe Durigon out there - you can dismiss every horse he rides without even looking at the form. I had a buddy that used to put a line through everything Corey Black rode as well. If he liked Corey's horse, he just wouldn't play the race.
I like them going longer the 1st time if the breeding's there and their beyer's are close to the others in the race. Of course want there to only be one of these type in the race and invariably when there are two; I back the wrong one. lol
when i handicap i'll choose a horse on the basis of at least three and as many as 10 factors:
1- class
2- most recent races
3- trainer
4- condition of the strip
5- post position
6- distance
7 breeding ( only for a horse that hasn't started many times)
if, after weighing all those factors, I still can't split two or three horses , I'll look at:
8- Trainer
9- Weight
10- Workouts
speed , stamina , and heart those are the ingredients of what i call class.
unless a horse won his previous start by 10 lengths , one race doesn't say much about form
the horse deserves 90 percent of the credit for winning and 90 percent of the blame for losing, the next biggest hand should go to the trainer
a handicapper must know whether a track favors speed or gives the edge to horses that come off the pace
most horses can win only within a narrow distance range , some horses though, can give a game enough effort running long or short
forget the breeding on an older horse
if u are looking for handicapping help, u can get it from the jockey, the better jockeys will get the better horses
post position is a factor when the rail is lightning fast or quicksand deep. If it is fast the jockey wants to get to the rail as quickly as possible and an inside post helps. If the rail is deep with an inside post he may lose precious length trying to get outside
don't worry too much about weight unless is a dramatic shift , i usually disregard a shift in wight in sprint , if it is route , i'll consider the extra weight
workouts can't be ignored , they maybe true
1- class
2- most recent races
3- trainer
4- condition of the strip
5- post position
6- distance
7 breeding ( only for a horse that hasn't started many times)
if, after weighing all those factors, I still can't split two or three horses , I'll look at:
8- Trainer
9- Weight
10- Workouts
speed , stamina , and heart those are the ingredients of what i call class.
unless a horse won his previous start by 10 lengths , one race doesn't say much about form
the horse deserves 90 percent of the credit for winning and 90 percent of the blame for losing, the next biggest hand should go to the trainer
a handicapper must know whether a track favors speed or gives the edge to horses that come off the pace
most horses can win only within a narrow distance range , some horses though, can give a game enough effort running long or short
forget the breeding on an older horse
if u are looking for handicapping help, u can get it from the jockey, the better jockeys will get the better horses
post position is a factor when the rail is lightning fast or quicksand deep. If it is fast the jockey wants to get to the rail as quickly as possible and an inside post helps. If the rail is deep with an inside post he may lose precious length trying to get outside
don't worry too much about weight unless is a dramatic shift , i usually disregard a shift in wight in sprint , if it is route , i'll consider the extra weight
workouts can't be ignored , they maybe true
One angle is DNF or eased in last race. I have seen a number of studies on horses who did not finish their last race and believe it or not that angle shows a flat bet profit next time out. Now you have to be able to tolerate losing a high number of bets and then not miss the big price winner when they win.
Maybe more relevent is what I like to call the magic move. This applies to closers (let's say more than 6 lenghts back in the early running) who get the lead by the stretch call and widen the margin of victory at the wire. The horse must have a clear lead by the stretch call.
A magic move horse's line may look something like:
7th,8.5 back 5th,4.5 back 1st, by1.0 1st by 4.25
These horse usualy are given a class hike and have a high next out win % usually at decent odds because of the class rise.
Maybe more relevent is what I like to call the magic move. This applies to closers (let's say more than 6 lenghts back in the early running) who get the lead by the stretch call and widen the margin of victory at the wire. The horse must have a clear lead by the stretch call.
A magic move horse's line may look something like:
7th,8.5 back 5th,4.5 back 1st, by1.0 1st by 4.25
These horse usualy are given a class hike and have a high next out win % usually at decent odds because of the class rise.
bump
